ETF Rebalancing Calculator

Manage US stocks, Korean stocks, and ETFs in one place and auto-rebalance to your target allocation

Real-time US & KR stock prices
Auto buy/sell calculation
Cloud sync supported
Monetary Policy2026-03-20

Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%, Rate Cuts Unlikely in 2026

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5-3.75% at the March FOMC meeting. Chair Powell acknowledged less progress on inflation than hoped, and traders now see virtually no chance of rate cuts this year.

관리자

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50-3.75% at the March 19 FOMC meeting. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has fallen short of expectations, declining to rule out further tightening. With energy prices surging due to the Iran conflict, futures markets now price in virtually zero probability of rate cuts in 2026.

Powell's Frank Admission on Inflation Progress

Chair Powell stated that the Fed 'wasn't making as much progress on bringing down inflation as it had hoped.' Core PCE remains well above the 2% target, and oil price surges triggered by the Iran conflict threaten to feed through to service-sector inflation. The updated dot plot reportedly shifted the median year-end rate projection higher, signaling the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance for the foreseeable future.

Bond Market Reaction and AGG ETF Trends

Treasury yields climbed across the curve following the announcement. The 10-year yield briefly topped 4.8%, hitting a new 2026 high. The AGG ETF fell 0.8% as bond investors absorbed losses. Duration-dependent performance gaps widened notably between TLT vs IEF, with longer-duration portfolios suffering steeper declines. Investors with heavy bond exposure should consider using a rebalancing calculator to evaluate duration adjustments.

Trump's Pressure on Powell and Political Risks

President Trump has intensified public criticism of Chair Powell, pushing for a successor. Kevin Warsh is reportedly the leading candidate, while Powell has committed to serving until the Senate confirms a replacement. Political threats to Fed independence add another layer of market uncertainty. Historically, Fed leadership transitions have been associated with increased volatility.

Stagflation Concerns and Portfolio Strategy Review

The simultaneous rise in oil prices and rate hold has brought stagflation fears to the forefront. In an environment of slowing growth and rising prices, the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio may see diminished diversification benefits. Using an asset allocation calculator to evaluate exposure to energy, commodities, and TIPS is advisable. Increasing short-duration bonds and TIPS allocation can serve as an effective strategy during rising real-rate environments.

Conclusion

The Fed's March rate hold sent a hawkish signal to markets. With inflation progress stalling and geopolitical risks escalating, hopes for 2026 rate cuts have effectively evaporated. Bond investors need to pay close attention to duration management, and all investors should reassess inflation-hedging allocations across their portfolios. Using a rebalancing calculator to diagnose current positioning and make adjustments is strongly recommended.

Related Portfolios

Conservative Income Portfolio

AGG 20%TLT 10%Low

Defensive Quality Portfolio

AGG 15%Low

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

TLT 25%Low

All Weather Portfolio

TLT 40%IEF 15%Low-Medium
#Fed rate hold#FOMC#inflation#rebalancing calculator#asset allocation calculator#TLT vs IEF#AGG ETF

Related Articles

Monetary Policy2026-03-19

Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back Toward December

Monetary Policy2026-03-19

Fed Holds Rates in March, Maintains One Cut Projection

Monetary Policy2026-03-18

Treasury Yields Top 4.3%, Rate Cut Hopes Fade

Apply with the Rebalancing Calculator

Automatically calculate exactly how much to buy and sell to rebalance your portfolio.

Start Rebalancing Calculator

Have any questions?