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Market Analysis2026-02-24
Great Rotation Accelerates, Dividend ETFs Surge
The Great Rotation from tech to value, dividends, energy, and materials is accelerating in 2026. With SCHD outperforming the S&P 500, portfolio rebalancing has become the year's most critical investment task.
관리자
The defining keyword of 2026 is 'rotation.' Capital is flowing out of large-cap tech stocks that dominated markets for three years, shifting toward value, dividends, energy, materials, and international equities. With five dividend ETFs including SCHD outperforming SPY, fundamental changes in portfolio strategy are now essential. Wall Street experts warn this rotation is structural rather than temporary.
Signals of Tech Dominance Ending
QQQ's top five holdings comprising 40% of total weight has become a structural weakness. The Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2 percentage points in 2026, as AI hype fails to translate into earnings growth and tech premiums compress. Meanwhile, XNTK (equal-weight tech ETF) delivered 216% excess returns versus QQQ, proving equal-weight rebalancing strategies' effectiveness. TQQQ investors face compounding leveraged losses as tech weakens, making position reduction necessary at this juncture.
Five Dividend ETFs Dominating the S&P 500
Five dividend ETFs have outpaced SPY in 2026: DFJ (Japan dividends), SCHD (U.S. dividends), FDL (large-cap dividends), HDV (high dividends), and EYLD (emerging market dividends). SCHD notably reversed three years of S&P 500 underperformance. Its defensive sector composition and solid dividend yield shine amid rate-cut expectations. VYM and VIG also provide stable returns, enhancing dividend investing's appeal. Growing numbers of investors use asset allocation calculators to expand dividend ETF allocations above 20% of total portfolio.
Powerful Rise of Industrials, Energy, and Materials
Capital leaving tech is flowing into real-economy sectors. Industrials, energy, and materials have all outperformed technology in 2026. Japan's announcement of $36 billion in U.S. energy, export, and mineral investments provides additional momentum for energy ETFs like XLE. Crude oil prices hitting six-month highs further benefit the energy sector. Using an asset allocation calculator to reweight sector exposure and reduce tech concentration is timely and effective.
Rebalancing Strategy and Execution for the Rotation Era
Experts warn the current rotation may be structural rather than temporary. Using a rebalancing calculator to trim technology below 30% while securing 15-20% in dividend holdings through SCHD and VYM is recommended. RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) as a core position helps diversify large-cap concentration risk. Maintaining bond exposure through AGG ETF while flexibly responding to sector rotation creates the balanced portfolio this era demands.
Conclusion
The Great Rotation offers ETF investors a decisive opportunity to restructure portfolios. Those who increase allocations to dividend ETFs like SCHD and VYM alongside real-economy sectors like XLE, while executing regular rebalancing, will benefit from this structural shift. Tech-concentrated portfolios are no longer optimal, and now is the time for strategic transition.
