Market Analysis2025-09-26

AI Chip Shortage Deepens, Taiwan Semiconductor ETFs Continue Surge

As global AI demand surges, a worsening shortage of high-performance semiconductors is driving TSMC, Nvidia, and other major companies's share prices higher. Interest in Taiwan semiconductor ETFs and technology ETFs has increased significantly, making this an opportune moment to review portfolio rebalancing.

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The explosive growth of generative AI services such as ChatGPT and Claude has driven demand for high-performance GPUs and AI chips far beyond supply, ushering in a semiconductor 'super cycle.' In particular, orders for TSMC's 3-nanometer process products are sold out through 2026, significantly raising the appeal of semiconductor ETFs and making it the right time to consider adjusting technology stock weightings using a rebalancing calculator.

TSMC 3nm Orders Backed Up Two Years

The world's largest foundry, TSMC, is unable to fulfill new orders from major clients including Apple, Nvidia, and AMD until 2026 due to constrained 3-nanometer production capacity. With demand for Nvidia's next-generation GPUs and Apple's M-series chips surging, TSMC's share price has risen 45% year-to-date. This is serving as a key driver for semiconductor ETFs such as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), and the number of investors using portfolio calculators to increase their semiconductor sector allocation is growing rapidly.

AI Tailwinds Continue in Memory Semiconductors

The rapid build-out of AI data centers is fueling explosive demand for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) products. In particular, HBM3E products are fully sold out through next year, and both companies are significantly expanding related investments. The growth of these leading Korean firms is translating into improved returns for domestic semiconductor ETFs such as KODEX Semiconductor ETF, making it important to use an asset allocation calculator to optimize domestic and international semiconductor ETF weightings.

AI Chip Design Companies Also Rising in Tandem

Beyond semiconductor manufacturing, fabless chip design companies are also benefiting from the AI boom. As share prices for AI chip design firms including ARM Holdings, AMD, and Marvell Technology continue to set new all-time highs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen 15%. The strong performance of global technology ETFs holding these companies has drawn attention to the strategy of using a rebalancing calculator to increase overall exposure to the semiconductor ecosystem.

Rally Extends to Semiconductor Equipment Stocks

The surge in chip demand is also a tailwind for semiconductor manufacturing equipment makers. Backlogs at major equipment vendors including ASML, Tokyo Electron, and Applied Materials have reached all-time highs, and related ETFs are also showing strength. With demand for EUV lithography equipment expected to persist through 2027, investment interest in the entire semiconductor value chain is intensifying.

Conclusion

The semiconductor super cycle driven by the AI revolution is being assessed not as a temporary phenomenon but as a long-term structural shift. In particular, the combination of Korean companies' memory semiconductor expertise and Taiwan's foundry dominance is further highlighting the appeal of Asian semiconductor ETFs. 💡 Use the ETF rebalancing calculator to identify the optimal semiconductor sector weighting and capture long-term growth drivers.

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