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Market Analysis2025-09-25
AI Chip Shortage Deepens: Time to Revisit Semiconductor ETF Investment Strategies
As the global AI semiconductor shortage shows no signs of easing, stock prices of related companies are surging. With earnings outlooks for major chip makers like Nvidia and AMD being revised upward, semiconductor ETFs have become significantly more attractive — making this an opportune moment to actively consider increasing semiconductor exposure in your portfolio rebalancing strategy.
AdminMarket Analysis
The explosive growth of ChatGPT and various AI services has caused demand for AI-dedicated semiconductors to far outstrip supply, driving a structural shift in the global semiconductor market. In particular, shortages of high-performance AI chips — including Nvidia's H100 and A100 series and AMD's MI300 — have intensified, pushing order backlogs at these companies to all-time highs. This shift is prompting investors using portfolio calculators to reassess the appropriate weighting of semiconductor ETFs within their technology equity strategies.
Nvidia and AMD Backlogs Surge
Nvidia's data center revenue for Q3 2025 reached $30 billion — a 200% year-over-year increase — demonstrating that AI semiconductor market growth is far exceeding expectations. Lead times for the H100 GPU have stretched to over six months from order to delivery, with large-scale orders from major cloud providers continuing to grow. AMD is also expanding its market share against Nvidia, with MI300X revenue rising more than 50% quarter-over-quarter. Portfolio calculator analysis projects that AI semiconductor companies are expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 40% over the next three years, placing long-term investment value for related ETFs in very high regard. Rebalancing calculators suggest that managing semiconductor ETFs as a separate asset class — distinct from broader technology equity holdings — is an effective strategy. Using an asset allocation calculator, investors can determine the appropriate weighting for AI semiconductor ETFs based on their individual risk tolerance and investment objectives; growth-oriented investors may consider allocating as much as 15–20% of their total portfolio.
Memory Semiconductor and Foundry Industries Boom
As AI models have grown larger, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has skyrocketed, significantly improving the earnings performance of memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Pre-orders for HBM3E and next-generation HBM4 products are already sold out through 2026, signaling the full onset of a memory industry supercycle. Foundry players such as TSMC and Samsung Foundry are also dramatically expanding investment in advanced process nodes (3nm, 2nm) to produce AI chips, reshaping the entire semiconductor ecosystem around AI. Portfolio calculator analysis indicates that memory and foundry companies play a critical role in the AI semiconductor value chain, having secured new growth engines that far surpass the PC and mobile-centric models of the past. Rebalancing calculators recommend a strategy of sub-allocating within semiconductor ETFs across memory, logic semiconductors, and equipment segments. According to asset allocation calculator analysis, Korean investors can effectively diversify regional concentration risk by pairing direct holdings in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix with global semiconductor ETF investments.
Semiconductor Equipment Companies Benefit
Surging demand for advanced equipment needed to produce AI chips has pushed share prices of semiconductor equipment companies — including ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research — to all-time highs. EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography equipment in particular is essential for AI chip production, and ASML's monopoly position gives it substantial pricing power. Korean semiconductor equipment companies such as Wonik IPS, TES, and Eugene Technology are also seeing rapid order growth as global foundries expand capital expenditures. Portfolio calculator analysis identifies semiconductor equipment companies as the primary beneficiaries of the AI boom, with related ETFs expected to deliver a very high contribution to overall portfolio returns. Rebalancing calculators suggest classifying semiconductor equipment as a core upstream semiconductor investment and allocating a dedicated weighting. Using an asset allocation calculator, investors can build a well-balanced semiconductor value chain portfolio, and given the high profitability and strong barriers to entry of equipment companies, a relatively higher allocation may be warranted.
Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Diversification
Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and semiconductor export controls are accelerating the diversification of the global semiconductor supply chain. Large-scale investments through initiatives such as the U.S. CHIPS Act and the European Chips Act are driving the establishment of regional semiconductor production bases, expanding investment opportunities for related companies. New investment themes are also emerging from expanding semiconductor manufacturing capacity in third-party countries such as Japan and India. Portfolio calculator analysis shows that regionally diversified investment — taking geopolitical risk into account — significantly enhances the stability of a semiconductor portfolio. Rebalancing calculators propose combining regional semiconductor ETFs across the U.S., Asia, and Europe to minimize supply chain risk. An asset allocation calculator allows investors to adjust regional semiconductor weightings according to their individual tolerance for geopolitical risk; investors who prioritize stability may benefit from broad geographical diversification.
Key Considerations and Outlook for AI Semiconductor Investing
Despite the strong growth outlook for the AI semiconductor market, a cautious approach is necessary — one that weighs the pace of technological change, intensifying competition, and elevated valuations together. In particular, given that AI semiconductor stocks are currently trading at high levels, short-term corrections should be kept in mind, and the potential for rapid shifts in the market landscape due to technological breakthroughs or the emergence of new competitors must be considered. The possibility that improving AI model efficiency could slow the rate of semiconductor demand growth should also be factored in. It is important to use a portfolio calculator to balance AI semiconductor ETF allocations with other technology and growth equities, avoiding excessive concentration. Rebalancing calculators recommend a strategy of managing risk through periodic rebalancing that accounts for the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry. An asset allocation calculator can help investors formulate a customized AI semiconductor investment strategy that reflects their individual goals and risk tolerance; a long-term, consistent investment approach allows investors to participate in the benefits of the AI revolution. As AI technology spreads across a wide range of industries, semiconductor demand is expected to continue rising, reinforcing the long-term investment case.
Conclusion
The AI semiconductor shortage represents more than a temporary supply-demand imbalance — it is a signal of structural transformation within the semiconductor industry. As AI infrastructure buildout continues over the next three to five years, the growth momentum of related ETFs is expected to strengthen further. Use the rebalancing calculator to determine the optimal allocation for AI semiconductor exposure in your portfolio, and leverage the asset allocation calculator to construct a portfolio positioned for technological innovation. You can explore semiconductor investment strategies in detail at /guide/semiconductor-investment.
